The central air-conditioning industry under the coronavirus
The current coronavirus situation is an unusual year for all HVAC staff. Whether in terms of engineering or retail, under the multiple pressures of the global economic environment, national policy regulation, regional economic planning, and market funds, the development of the industry has changed. Had to falter. Many companies are not optimistic about the situation in the first quarter and the first half of 2020. The sharp decline is their unified perception. What was supposed to be the first sales explosion in the market in 2020 was unpreparedly dissipated by the epidemic. It is foreseeable that the central air-conditioning industry will change again in 2020, adding more uncertainty to the originally uncertain market prospects. The central air-conditioning industry under the coronavirus.
1. Engineering project market: mixed
In 2019, the overall sales scale of the domestic central air-conditioning market reached 89.5 billion yuan, a decline of about 5.8% over the same period last year. From upstream accessories to downstream complete machine manufacturers, the entire domestic HVAC industry chain can feel the chill of declining sales. At the end of 2019, the pneumonia epidemic caused by the new type of coronavirus has become more and more difficult, making the market more difficult, and “deceleration” has become the keynote of the domestic central air-conditioning market in 2020.
Large-scale commercial projects: Under the influence of the epidemic, major projects have been suspended or postponed one after another. At the same time, the number of projects is obviously small. In the field of large-scale commercial projects, major brands compete fiercely, and price wars have become fierce. A brand manager told this magazine that major brands are currently inclined to look for potential business opportunities or new regional growth points. For example, the implementation of national strategies such as the “Belt and Road”, the construction of the Xiongan New Area, and the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area will give Associated cities bring huge development opportunities and revitalization opportunities for large-scale commercial projects, which are also the areas where major brands focus on.
Small and medium-sized commercial projects: In 2019, small and medium-sized commercial projects are indeed the most dynamic point of the entire central air-conditioning project market. Some multi-connected companies have also made great gains in 2019 by vigorously promoting the small and medium project market. However, it is obvious that in the beginning of 2020, due to the dual impact of the market economy environment and the epidemic, investment has been greatly reduced, resulting in a significant year-on-year decline in the number of small and medium-sized projects.
Government projects: In 2019, most of the city’s government projects focus on renovation. Since 2019, the policy has mentioned “old reform” many times. In fact, pilot projects for the renovation and renovation of old communities started as early as 2017, and they entered in 2018. In the implementation phase, urban renewal and the transformation of a broader existing market have become new growth points driving domestic demand in the domestic economy.
It is expected that by the end of 2020, the renovation of old communities in all pilot cities will be basically completed. At present, there are about 160,000 old communities in the country that need to be renovated, involving about 4 billion square meters of construction area. Although the industry is not paying much attention at present, there are huge development prospects behind the “old reform” market. I believe that with the frequent introduction of “old reform” policies, the market reform in 2020 will release huge dividends.
Industrial projects: With the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry and strict supervision of energy conservation and environmental protection, future industrial projects will become the “life-saving straw” for chillers, covering industries including pharmaceutical factories, power plants, coal mines, data centers, various types of manufacturing workshops, etc. Among them, transformation projects and industrial integration projects account for a large proportion, which will drive the steady development of centrifuges, screw machines and modular machines. It is especially worth noting that with the acceleration of environmental protection in industrial waste heat utilization projects, related heat pump products, system solutions, and equipment operation management will bring considerable profit margins to manufacturers and engineering companies.
It is worth mentioning that affected by the epidemic, the medical purification industry may become an obvious market highlight this year. A brand manager told this journal that there will be many hospital orders in 2020, mainly for products such as purified combined air conditioners, fresh air, and hot water machines.
2. Home improvement retail market: or will usher in a cliff-like decline
Looking back on 2019, the industry development was under pressure from the macro economy, and the lack of consumer confidence still exists. The high leverage ratio of residents also squeezed the demand for central air-conditioning to a certain extent. The growth rate of the entire central air-conditioning market has slowed, especially the home improvement retail market is not optimistic.
At the beginning of 2020, under the influence of the epidemic, the progress of real estate construction has been prolonged, and land transfers have also been affected. In addition, due to poor sales expectations in the first quarter, small and medium-sized real estate companies have tight cash flow, and their enthusiasm for land acquisition has also fallen sharply. Commercial facilities and fine decoration projects focusing on the real estate industry will all encounter obstacles, especially in Wuhan and Zhejiang.
The situation facing the retail market is even more severe. The community is not allowed to enter, the construction of the real estate is suspended, and even the rework of workers will be affected. Suspension of production and production means that without orders and profits, cash flow will be imbalanced, leaving the development of the enterprise in a state of “blood loss”. Development must not be benign. It can be said to accelerate the survival of the fittest in the industry, or it can be said to delay the growth of the industry. As a result, the impact on the market is immeasurable. As far as the central air-conditioning market is concerned, large shopping malls, building materials markets, home appliances markets, etc. are closed, causing a great impact on the entire market economy. They will not be open for business at least in February. , March will experience a slow recovery and relief, in any case it is a long waiting period.
A brand manager said that this year has gone through the process of recharging continuously during the holidays. However, during the Spring Festival, the anxiety from the peers came. The pressure of inventory, loans, financing, expenses and other aspects impacted HVAC staff. In this “long standby” There will be no winners in the process.
A home improvement retailer in Ningbo also expressed his deep concern: “Although January-February is a low season for HVAC industry distributors, the impact of not starting work will not be too great, but if the epidemic is in a short time If you can’t control it, it will affect the company’s annual sales performance.”
Third, the fresh air purification industry ushered in new opportunities
After the outbreak, masks and alcohol were out of stock, and all protective products that people could think of were out of stock almost overnight. At the same time, air purification products have returned to the public eye.
Take Xinfeng series products as an example. Before the outbreak of the epidemic, fresh air was only used as a supporting product for central air-conditioning and was more widely used in commercial places. Although the smog has given birth to the development of the fresh air industry in the domestic market, it has never formed a planning, nor has it formed a national awareness. At that time, the fresh air system was applied in the public domain and more concentrated in kindergartens, schools and some hospitals. Because the resistance of the people in these places is relatively weak, especially when the haze weather strikes, it is more prone to discomfort. In addition, it is used in some conditional and conscious family places.
After the outbreak of the epidemic, the installation and discussion of the fresh air system began to soar. In particular, after the State Council organized the China Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to compile relevant management, after the introduction of guidelines for the application of fresh air in public places, the new air operation should be implemented in office and public places. The introduction of this guide undoubtedly puts forward a clearer development direction for the application of Fresh Air in the commercial and public fields. The channel layout of the industry may again tilt.
In addition, building purification, whole-house fresh air, and even negative pressure fresh air that has rarely appeared has been mentioned again. It is reported that the fresh air of the newly-built hospital in Wuhan adopts a negative pressure fresh air system to ensure that the indoor air pressure is lower than that of the outdoor, and to prevent indoor pathogenic gas from polluting the outside air through gaps such as door frames and windows.
I believe that after this pneumonia epidemic, more and more public buildings will be integrated into the fresh air purification system in the design stage.
It is worth noting that in this battle against the epidemic, we not only saw the well-known air purifiers and fresh air fans, but also made outdoor fresh air equipment, vehicle-mounted purifiers, portable fresh air fans, electric masks, fresh air lungs, and breathing treasures. Common products are displayed in the sight of the public.
With the guidance of national policies, the improvement of consumer awareness, the upgrading of products and technologies, and the external promotion of the new coronavirus, it is believed that in 2020, the industry application and promotion of air purification products will inject vitality into the fresh air purification industry Driven by these favorable points, the fresh air purification industry may usher in a breaking point.
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